Saturday, February 1, 2014

Forecasting a Prediction

Today slid right by.  Some things got done.  Others didn't.  Not to worry.  The evening was occupied with dinner - making, eating, and cleaning up - almost 3 completely enjoyable hours.

I replaced a switch today.  Now the disposal in the kitchen sink works again.  It hadn't worked for some number of months that I don't know, but Pam probably does.  The plumber who installed our new water heater last week had looked at it.  When I got home, instead of finding the disposal working, I received a message - the plumber says it's an electrical problem.

I would still have been stumped since the problem could have been wiring, the circuit breaker, the disposal itself, or the switch, but I thought to see if I could find my electrical multimeter.  Indeed, it was in the cabinet where I thought it might be.  I was surprised to find that it didn't need a new battery.  I haven't used it for some number of years that I don't know, and Pam probably doesn't either.

I set it to measure AC voltage, and stuck the probes in an electrical outlet that I knew worked to make sure it was reading correctly.  Then I turned off power at the breaker box, and took the switch out of the wall.  After repowering the circuit, I quickly ascertained that there was power getting to the switch, but no power on the output side when the switch was turned on.  A trip to the hardware store for a new switch and a few minutes of swapping wires and screwing switch and wall plate back into place, and the problem was solved.

Actually, the trip to the hardware store was just a stop on the way home from a trip to the wine store.  After a long stretch of freezing weather, and an overnight low in the 20s, the temperature this afternoon was near 50, the sun was out, and it was quite pleasant.  There were lots of people out, some still wearing heavy winter wear, and others in shorts or skirts.

The wine store has a small parking lot that on weekends is so busy that they have an attendant that directs traffic.  After he found a spot for me, we were both walking back toward the front.   I mentioned how nice the weather was, figuring it would be greatly appreciated by someone whose job was outside all day.  But no.  He said he didn't like it, and would have preferred that it would have stayed cold, since it was going to get cold again in a couple of days and probably snow - it should just stay cold until winter is completely over.

My preference was to just enjoy the nice day we had.  Knowing that more winter weather was forecast seemed to keep my parking lot friend from enjoying a very pleasant day.

Forecasting is big business - we all seem eager to know what the future holds.  But most of the time, if I think about the value of knowing, it isn't all that important.  I also find that the expectation that is put in my mind by a forecast can hinder my response to what actually happens.

I knew that forecasting was completely out of hand when I saw an item on the AccuWeather site forecasting, several days in advance, that Punxutawney Phil would see his shadow tomorrow, thereby predicting 6 more weeks of winter.


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